UFC on FOX - Diaz vs. Miller
Very few things are
certain when it comes to the
UFC
lightweight division.
Benson
Henderson is the champion. Barring injury, he will make the first defense of
his crown later this year against the man he snatched it from,
Frankie Edgar.
Beyond that, little
is cut in stone. For example, it is nearly impossible to state with certainty
who sits in the number one contender spot. Is it
Anthony Pettis, the last man to defeat
Henderson? What about former champion and future Hall of Famer
BJ Penn? Don’t pay any attention to his retirement
talk. This guy will fight again. I’m as certain of that as death and taxes. What
about Strikeforce champion Gilbert Melendez, who is one of the most talented
lightweights on the planet not currently competing in the UFC? Some would
actually argue that he is the best of the best, period.
Of course, we
cannot forget perennial contenders
Nate Diaz
and
Jim Miller. The pair will square off on
in the main event of the UFC’s third live broadcast on FOX this Saturday night.
Many believe that the winner will move to the head of the championship
challenger queue. A boring win probably won’t “get ‘er done,” to quote Larry the
Cable Guy. If, however, the winner scores a decisive victory or survives a
thrilling back-and-forth war, then I definitely agree with the masses. The
winner will almost certainly stand next in line.
A likely title
eliminator on network television in primetime. How is that for pressure? Pretty
intense, isn’t it?
Many fighters cave in the face of such pressure. They
go out and fight not to lose, rather than fighting to win. It makes for
disastrous television.
While I cannot guarantee anything, it seems
extremely unlikely that Diaz and Miller will do anything other than let it all
hang out in front of millions of viewers in a desperate attempt to secure their
first shot at a UFC championship. The statistics back up that claim,
too.
Diaz is one of the most decorated post-fight award winners in UFC
history. More than half of his 15 trips to the Octagon resulted in an “of the
night” bonus, making him one of the most thrilling fighters in the sport today.
Miller doesn’t quite rise to Diaz’s level, in terms of fan-friendly outings, but
he is no slouch. One quarter of his UFC bouts earned him a lucrative and
career-enhancing post-fight bonus.
It’s no accident that these guys are
headlining
UFC on FOX
3. UFC President Dana White expects it to be a barnburner, with the winner
being perfectly positioned to present himself to the world as the next in line
for the winner of Henderson-Edgar II.
This fight is extremely easy to
break down. It is the quintessential striker versus grappler bout, with a
twist.
There is no doubt that Diaz wants to keep the fight on the feet.
His standup game, though extremely unorthodox, is one of the most effective in
the division. He is basically a carbon copy of his older brother Nick. Nate
walks down opponents from a southpaw stance. He paws with both hands, reaching
out as if he is trying to grasp his opponent’s wrists. Then, seemingly out of
nowhere, he turns a paw into a slapping shot.
Normally, slapping shots
are ineffective. The Diaz brothers have somehow figured out how to turn those
shots into whipping, effective punches. Neither has true one-punch knockout
power. They instead swarm opponents and overwhelm them with
activity.
Nate absolutely wants to do that against Miller. His game plan
is to use non-stop offense as a way to defend. He wants to keep his hands moving
and completely forget about kicks, unless they are at the end of punches. That
is OK because Diaz isn’t much of a kicker in the first place. He is a
technically brilliant brawler who uses unyielding pressure to break an
opponent’s will before breaking his body.
Miller, by contrast, is more of
a reactionary fighter, rather than an aggressive predator. He has serviceable
standup, but his bread and butter is getting foes to the ground and either
beating them up or, far more likely, using his ground-and-pound attack to force
his opponent to give up his back to try and escape the onslaught and then
sinking in a choke. He did exactly that in his last fight.
Facing the
ultra-explosive and always entertaining
Melvin Guillard, Miller had to wade
through extremely deep waters after getting dominated on the feet early in the
first round. But before the round ended, he found a way to get it to the ground
and he used his impressive ground skills to secure a submission through superior
ground control and excellent grappling technique.
A black belt under
Jamie Cruz, Miller is a vastly underrated submission specialist. Most consider
him a wrestler first. I disagree. I view him as a top-focused ground fighter,
one who equally blends wrestling, BJJ and ground-and-pound. His major weakness,
however, remains both his standup and his inability to really offer dangerous
submissions from his back against top opponents.
It stands to reason that
Diaz will seek to exploit the first of those weaknesses, but won’t have the
takedown chops to try and take advantage of the second. Diaz will almost
certainly want to use his tremendous height and reach advantages to keep the
action on the outside in order to help avoid the takedown. If the takedown
comes, he won’t panic. That is the twist. Diaz is a black belt under Cesar
Gracie, so he is one of the more comfortable fighters from his back in the
division.
I will actually take that one step further. Diaz has one of the
most spectacular offensive guards in the division. He isn’t intimidated by being
on his back against anyone.
The reality, though, is he has struggled from
his back with guys who posses great top games and very good submission defense.
Joe Stevenson and
Clay Guida both fit that description, and they
each ground out victories over the former reality television star. Thus, it is
tough to imagine him having success from his back against a top-focused fighter
like Miller, who, as mentioned above, is also a black belt.
Miller has
only three losses in his professional career. All three came against superior
wrestlers – Frankie Edgar,
Gray Maynard
and Benson Henderson. He has faced many, many superior strikers, and has
defeated each of them. That suggests that he should be able to pass the Diaz
test, since the Stockton native is nowhere near Miller in terms of wrestling
skills.
I’m not so sure. Diaz presents a different sort of standup game
than anything that Miller has ever seen before. He doesn’t overcommit, like
Guillard did. He is rarely out of position. And he is becoming better and better
at incorporating his sprawl into his boxing.
If Diaz is able to keep the
fight off the ground, he wins easy. Sure, Miller could win by shocking knockout.
He blasted
Kamal Shalorus out of there
with a series of punches followed by a knee just over a year ago. Anyone can get
knocked out on any given night in mixed martial arts. But Diaz isn’t Shalorus.
And Miller isn’t winning this fight by knockout – not on the feet, at
least.
Can I see Diaz winning by slick submission from his back or maybe
catching a standing guillotine? Sure. A Cesar Gracie black belt has the ability
to win any fight by submission if an opponent makes a mistake. It just isn’t
likely, because Miller is extremely good from the top.
This fight is a
tough fight to call, when it is all said and done. All I know for certain is
that it has all the ingredients of a great fight. If forced to pick, I’m
currently leaning toward Diaz. He has more tools in his arsenal, and he is
arguably coming off the two most impressive performances of his professional
career – utter dominations of
Takanori
Gomi and
Donald Cerrone.
Then again, when I started writing this piece a couple of hours ago, my
mind was leaning toward Miller, a guy who has only lost once in his last nine
fights. And that was to reigning champion Henderson. If he can get Diaz to the
ground and keep him there, this could be one of the more intriguing and
fast-paced ground battles of the year.
Maybe tomorrow I’ll lean toward a
draw. Who knows?
Who do you think will win and why? Fill up the comment
section below. I’ll be reading, as always.
QUICK FACTS
Nate
Diaz
• 27 years old
• 6’0
• 155 lbs
• 76-inch
reach
• 15-7 overall
• 3-2 in last 5
• 5-5 in last 10
•
66.7% of wins by submission
• 20.0% of wins by KO/TKO
• 13.3% of
wins by decision
• Has only been stopped once as a professional, armbar
loss in 2006
• 53.3% of UFC fights resulted in post-fight award
(Submission of the Night 3x, Fight of the Night 5x)
• Ultimate Fighter
Season 5 winner
• Current layoff is 127 days
• Longest layoff of
career is 310 days
Jim Miller
• 28 years old
• 5’8, 155
lbs
• 71-inch reach
• 21-3 overall
• 4-1 in last 5
• 8-2
in last 10
• 14.3% of wins by KO/TKO
• 57.1% of UFC wins by
submission
• 28.6% of UFC wins by decision
• Has never been stopped
in his professional career
• 25% of UFC fights resulted in post-fight
award (Submission of the Night 3x, Fight of the Night)
• Current layoff is
106 days
• Longest layoff of career is 172 days
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